Sunday 31 January 2016

Africa's largest economy needs a $3.5 billion emergency loan after getting hammered by the oil crash




A villager shows a bucket of of crude oil spill at the banks of a river, after a Shell pipeline leaked, in the Oloma community in Nigeria's delta region November 27, 2014.
Nigeria has asked the World Bank and African Development Bank for a $3.5 billion loan, according to The Financial Times.
The request comes as Africa's largest economy grapples with a $15 billion budget deficit in the wake of the oil crash that has seen prices fall about 70% in the last year and a half.
The FT's Shawn Donnan and Maggie Fick report that Nigeria's finance minister, Kemi Adeosun, told the FT these loans aren't an "emergency" measure, but merely the cheapest way for the country to shore up its finances.
Nigeria produces about 1.8 million barrels of oil per day and 35% of its GDP comes from the oil and gas sector; 90% of Nigeria's export revenue comes from the sale of petroleum, according to OPEC.
The important takeaway, however, is that while the crash in oil prices seen during 2014 and 2015 was stunning, it isn't until this year and beyond that we'll start to see the real impacts on both private corporate and government budgets from the sustained decline in prices.
And so here we are.
According to Donnan and Fick, Nigeria's package would be comprised of $2.5 billion from the World Bank and $1 billion from the African Development Bank. The loans would likely be priced at below-market rates.
Earlier this week Nigeria was in focus as Business Insider's Elena Holodny looked at research ou
violence inside the country disrupting its oil production, a development that could boost international prices but would certainly further stress Nigeria's financial position.
And so while the FT's report notes that the proposed package of loans made to Nigeria wouldn't come with the strings usually attached with a loan from the IMF — which often include extensive "structural reforms," which is basically short-hand for coming up with additional revenue to ensure repayment — the IMF will be expected to endorse a loan from the World Bank.

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